WEEKLY PERFORMANCE (4-8 DECEMBER 2017) CapitalHeight – CASH PREMIUM

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WEEKLY PERFORMANCE (4-8 DECEMBER 2017) CapitalHeight – FUTURE PREMIUM

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RBI Monetary Policy LIVE: MPC keeps Policy Repo Rate Unchanged

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Wednesday kept its key lending rate—the repo rate—unchanged at 6 percent, but warned about lurking inflation worries in the new year, amid signs that costlier food and fuel prices could pinch household budgets.

The six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel, ignored calls from business leaders to cut interest rates to boost investment and accelerate growth in the broader economy that has shown signs of revival in the last few months.

The MPC felt India’s retail inflation, which was galloping towards the RBI’s tolerable 4 percent threshold driven by costlier vegetables; need to be firmly bottled up first before lowering loan costs.

Surging onion prices, which is currently retailing around Rs 65 a kg in some markets, has pushed up kitchen budgets. Unseasonal rains have affected supplies of the summer-sown (kharif) onion crop this year, pushing up retail prices. Last month the government allowed state-owned agencies to buy onions from overseas markets, to bolster local supplies and keep a check on shop-end prices of the commonly-used bulb in most Indian curries.

The RBI also kept one eye on global oil prices that has nudged higher, following last week’s deal between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other crude producers to curb production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2018. This will likely drive up prices.

This could knock up pump-gate diesel and petrol prices in India, which imports more than two-thirds of its crude oil requirements.

RBI Reiterates caution against use of Virtual Currencies, Prohibits Bitcoins

BitcoinReserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday, December 5, 2017 reiterated caution to the “users, holders and traders” of Bitcoins about the security related risks associated in dealing with the virtual currencies (VCs).

RBI has reiterated its stand mentioning that the apex bank has not given any license or authorization to any entity or company to operate any schemes or deals through the medium of VC like Bitcoin.

The central bank had also mentioned in December 24, 2013 that “There is no underlying or backing of any asset for VCs. As such, their value seems to be a matter of speculation. Huge volatility in the value of VCs has been noticed in the recent past. Thus, the users are exposed to potential losses on account of such volatility in value”.

RBI had also said that the exchange platforms on which the Bitcoins are traded are set up in various jurisdictions whose legal status is also unclear.

Bitcoins or other VCs do not yet have a wide acceptance as tender for settling trade transactions. They are ‘minted’ using algorithms which are based on block chain technologies.

The value of Bitcoin spurted significantly in past couple of months taking it above $12,000 at all-time high levels.

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BSE Metal index down 1.6% as Commodity prices show further weakness

Copper prices touched a 2 month low of $6,580 per tonne over concerns of slowdown of Chinese infrastructure spending. Build up of copper inventories was also the cause for further bearishness. Copper inventories at LME warehouses rose from 10,650 tonnes to 192,550 tonnes. On the MCX, Zinc and aluminum prices were down 0.55% and 0.38% respectively. However, copper prices traded higher by 0.7%.

As per an economic survey, Chinese fixed-asset investment in infrastructure is estimated to grow at 12% next year against 20% in the first 10 months of 2017. China is stepping up efforts to reduce overcapacity in industry, which is feared to reduce demand for base metals going forward.

Metal stocks continued their decline from yesterday. Vedanta and Hindustan Zinc lost 2.8% each with Hindalco losing 2.9%. Steel stocks were less affected with JSW Steel, SAIL and Tata Steel down by 1.87%, 2.24% and 1.94% respectively.

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India Vix falls ahead of RBI policy

Stock Market UncertaintyVolatility gauge India VIX fell over 1% to 14.7825 ahead of RBI monetary policy outcome later today. Weak Asian cues also dampened the domestic sentiment.

The central bank is expected to maintain status quo on account of various factors, including a likelihood of retail inflation nudging up due to higher prices of vegetables and protein items, rising crude oil prices, the risk of fiscal slippage, and the possibility of the US Fed upping interest rates.

At 11:49 AM, Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.5% each, with the metal and banking sector are the worst performers today.

The Nifty Metal was the biggest loser among sectoral indices, falling 1.5% as Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, Hindustan Copper, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, NALCO, SAIL and MOIL rallied 1-3%.

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Nifty slips below 10,100 mark ahead of RBI policy

Nifty Market Trend
NSE BuidingEquity benchmarks extended losses with Nifty falling below 10,100 level, dragged by banking and financials ahead of RBI policy decision. Nifty Metal index fell close to 2% to be the biggest laggard among all NSE sectoral indices. The BSE Midcap index was down 0.07%, while the BSE Smallcap index rose 0.30%.

At 12:40 PM, Nifty50 was at 10,071, down 47 points or 0.47% from the previous close. The BSE Sensex was at 32,681, down 121 points or 0.37%.

Shares of metal and steel companies were the worst hit today because of a decline in global prices of industrial metals and steel. Shares of Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, Hindustan Copper, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and Power, and National Aluminium Co fell 1-3%.

Reliance Ind (+1%), Tech Mahindra (+1.01%), HCL Tech (+0.58%), Cipla (+0.48%) and Coal India (+0.41%) were the top gainers on Nifty 50.

Hindalco (-2.9%), Vedanta (-2.6%), Tata Steel (-1.9%), SBI (-1.2%) and Bajaj Auto (-1.2%) were the top losers in today’s trade.

India VIX dropped 0.73%.

Out of 1,985 stocks traded on the NSE, 885 advanced, 725 declined, and 375 remained unchanged today.

A total of 51 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trade today, while 16 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE.

Shares of Tata Communications rose 1% today after the company said that it has partnered with Thailand-based DRVR to provide mobility and internet-of-thing solutions to the fleet management application services provider.

Shares of Shilpa Medicare fell over 4.5% after the company informed that its formulations unit in Telangana has received a Form 483 with 10 observations.

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Repo Rate will be cut in RBI Monetary Policy

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भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक (आरबीआई) की मौद्रिक नीति समिति आज ब्याज दरों में कटौती को लेकर फैसला लेगी. मंगलवार से शुरू हुई  इस बैठक में रेपो रेट में कटौती की जा सकती है. अगर ऐसा होता है तो आम आदमी से लेकर कारोबारियों को सस्ते कर्ज का तोहफा मिलेगा.  लेकिन इस बार भी अगर आरबीआई रेपो रेट में कटौती नहीं करता है, तो आम आदमी को सस्ते कर्ज के लिए फरवरी तक इंतजार करना पड़ सकता है.

हालांकि फरवरी में भी आरबीआई की मौद्रिक नीति समिति अर्थव्यवस्था की चाल देखकर ही फैसला लेगी. आज आरबीआई के सामने रेपो रेट में कटौती करने के फैसले को लेकर कई चुनौतियां भी हैं.

कम हुआ है दबाव

मौद्रिक नीति समिति की बैठक ऐसे समय में हो रही है, जब जीडीपी के आंकड़ों में सुधार देखने को मिला है. इससे अर्थव्यवस्था की हालत में सुधार आया है. इस सुधार को देखते हुए आरबीआई पर ब्याज दरें कम करने का दबाव जरूर कम हुआ है. हालांकि जीडीपी आंकड़ों के अलावा बढ़ती महंगाई और कच्चे तेल की लगातार बढ़ रही कीमतों की चुनौती भी उसके सामने रहेगी.

बढ़ी है महंगाई

थोक महंगाई दर और खुदरा महंगाई दर में इजाफा हुआ है. नवंबर में जारी किए गए अक्टूबर की थोक महंगाई दर के आंकड़ों को देखें तो यह बढ़कर 3.56 फीसदी के स्‍तर पर आ गई है. अक्टूबर में खुदरा महंगाई  दर भी 3.58 फीसदी के स्‍तर पर पहुंच गई है. महंगाई  बढ़ने के लिए खाद्य उत्पादों की लगातार बढ़ रही कीमतें हैं. इस बैठक में आरबीआई के पास बढ़ती महंगाई एक बड़ी चुनौती रहेगी.

तेल की कीमतों में इजाफा

अंतरराष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में लगातार इजाफा हो रहा है. मौजूदा समय में कच्चा तेल 60 डॉलर प्रति बैरल पहुंच गया है. इससे देश में पेट्रोल और डीजल के दाम बढ़ने की आशंका पैदा हो गई है. इस वजह से ब्याज दरें घटाने और बढ़ाने को लेकर फैसला लेते वक्त आरबीआई की समिति इस पर भी विचार करेगी. समिति के फैसले को धार देने में यह फैक्टर भी अहम भूम‍िका निभाएगा.

पिछले कुछ महीनों के दौरान निजी क्षेत्र का निवेश घटा है. इस पर भी आरबीआई की मौद्रिक समिति विचार-विमर्श करेगी और इसके बाद ही कोई  फैसला लेगी.

जीडीपी का ये मिल सकता है फायदा

जीडीपी के आंकड़ों में सुधार आने का फायदा ग्रोथ प्रोजेक्शन में सुधार के तौर पर मिल सकता है. जीडीपी में आई तेजी को देखते हुए आरबीआई अर्थव्यवस्था के ग्रोथ अनुमान को बेहतर कर सकता है.

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RBI Monetary Policy Today: What to note beyond rate action

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The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is likely to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, given the concerns of rising inflation. All 15 economists surveyed by Mint expect the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to keep the key repo rate—the rate at which it infuses liquidity in the banking system—unchanged at 6% when it announces its decision on Wednesday.

Beyond the rate action, here are the three things to watch out for in the policy:

Growth & inflation forecast

With growth recovering and inflation rising, RBI’s outlook for the rest of the financial year will be closely watched. In the last policy, RBI had revised the fiscal year 2017-18 growth target down to 6.7% from 7.3%, citing adverse shocks, especially to the manufacturing sector, from the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST). But the latest GDP growth number for the quarter ended September has inched upwards to 6.3% after five consecutive quarters of deceleration, showing signs of recovery. The market therefore growth to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Liquidity management

With gradual rise in currency in circulation and pick up in credit off-take, liquidity situation is moving towards neutral from surplus mode. Market expects RBI to reiterate its stance of bringing systemic liquidity closer to neutrality, while using overnight and term repos under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility to manage liquidity in the near term. Additional open market operations (OMO) also seem unlikely, given the cancellation of the OMO sale last month.

Government finances commentary

The RBI is likely to reiterate its caution regarding the impact of fiscal slippages on inflation in the coming month. Given that the government has already reached 96% of the budgeted fiscal deficit, any push towards large public spending would result in a breach of the 3.2% fiscal deficit budgeted for the current year. While the government has committed to stick to the fiscal deficit target, there is uncertainty regarding the October indirect tax collection number post GST implementation.

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Steel Strips Wheels total wheel rim sales at 12.92 lakh in Nov

Steel Strips WheelsSteel Strips Wheels stock rose 1% after the company said it achieved total wheel rim sales of 12.92 lakh against 11.99 lakh in November 2017, representing a growth of 8% YoY.

The volumes of truck segment helped post highest healthy revenue growth for the company.

In terms of value, the company has achieved a gross turnover of Rs172.75cr in November 2017 against 128.62cr in November 2016, thereby recording a growth of 34% and achieved a net turnover of Rs138.85cr in November 2017 against Rs115.25cr in November 2016, recording a growth of 20%.

Exports shipments saw a good rebound as fresh orders revive the growth from European markets. We expect the growth to bounce back in Q4 very sharply with start of our truck wheel exports from Chennai, the company said in the BSE filing.

The stock is currently trading at Rs1060, up by Rs51.55 or 5.11% from its previous closing of Rs1008.45 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs1019 and has touched a high and low of Rs1074 and Rs1004 respectively.

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