Repo Rate will be cut in RBI Monetary Policy

RBI

भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक (आरबीआई) की मौद्रिक नीति समिति आज ब्याज दरों में कटौती को लेकर फैसला लेगी. मंगलवार से शुरू हुई  इस बैठक में रेपो रेट में कटौती की जा सकती है. अगर ऐसा होता है तो आम आदमी से लेकर कारोबारियों को सस्ते कर्ज का तोहफा मिलेगा.  लेकिन इस बार भी अगर आरबीआई रेपो रेट में कटौती नहीं करता है, तो आम आदमी को सस्ते कर्ज के लिए फरवरी तक इंतजार करना पड़ सकता है.

हालांकि फरवरी में भी आरबीआई की मौद्रिक नीति समिति अर्थव्यवस्था की चाल देखकर ही फैसला लेगी. आज आरबीआई के सामने रेपो रेट में कटौती करने के फैसले को लेकर कई चुनौतियां भी हैं.

कम हुआ है दबाव

मौद्रिक नीति समिति की बैठक ऐसे समय में हो रही है, जब जीडीपी के आंकड़ों में सुधार देखने को मिला है. इससे अर्थव्यवस्था की हालत में सुधार आया है. इस सुधार को देखते हुए आरबीआई पर ब्याज दरें कम करने का दबाव जरूर कम हुआ है. हालांकि जीडीपी आंकड़ों के अलावा बढ़ती महंगाई और कच्चे तेल की लगातार बढ़ रही कीमतों की चुनौती भी उसके सामने रहेगी.

बढ़ी है महंगाई

थोक महंगाई दर और खुदरा महंगाई दर में इजाफा हुआ है. नवंबर में जारी किए गए अक्टूबर की थोक महंगाई दर के आंकड़ों को देखें तो यह बढ़कर 3.56 फीसदी के स्‍तर पर आ गई है. अक्टूबर में खुदरा महंगाई  दर भी 3.58 फीसदी के स्‍तर पर पहुंच गई है. महंगाई  बढ़ने के लिए खाद्य उत्पादों की लगातार बढ़ रही कीमतें हैं. इस बैठक में आरबीआई के पास बढ़ती महंगाई एक बड़ी चुनौती रहेगी.

तेल की कीमतों में इजाफा

अंतरराष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में लगातार इजाफा हो रहा है. मौजूदा समय में कच्चा तेल 60 डॉलर प्रति बैरल पहुंच गया है. इससे देश में पेट्रोल और डीजल के दाम बढ़ने की आशंका पैदा हो गई है. इस वजह से ब्याज दरें घटाने और बढ़ाने को लेकर फैसला लेते वक्त आरबीआई की समिति इस पर भी विचार करेगी. समिति के फैसले को धार देने में यह फैक्टर भी अहम भूम‍िका निभाएगा.

पिछले कुछ महीनों के दौरान निजी क्षेत्र का निवेश घटा है. इस पर भी आरबीआई की मौद्रिक समिति विचार-विमर्श करेगी और इसके बाद ही कोई  फैसला लेगी.

जीडीपी का ये मिल सकता है फायदा

जीडीपी के आंकड़ों में सुधार आने का फायदा ग्रोथ प्रोजेक्शन में सुधार के तौर पर मिल सकता है. जीडीपी में आई तेजी को देखते हुए आरबीआई अर्थव्यवस्था के ग्रोथ अनुमान को बेहतर कर सकता है.

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RBI Monetary Policy Today: What to note beyond rate action

RBI

The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is likely to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, given the concerns of rising inflation. All 15 economists surveyed by Mint expect the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to keep the key repo rate—the rate at which it infuses liquidity in the banking system—unchanged at 6% when it announces its decision on Wednesday.

Beyond the rate action, here are the three things to watch out for in the policy:

Growth & inflation forecast

With growth recovering and inflation rising, RBI’s outlook for the rest of the financial year will be closely watched. In the last policy, RBI had revised the fiscal year 2017-18 growth target down to 6.7% from 7.3%, citing adverse shocks, especially to the manufacturing sector, from the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST). But the latest GDP growth number for the quarter ended September has inched upwards to 6.3% after five consecutive quarters of deceleration, showing signs of recovery. The market therefore growth to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Liquidity management

With gradual rise in currency in circulation and pick up in credit off-take, liquidity situation is moving towards neutral from surplus mode. Market expects RBI to reiterate its stance of bringing systemic liquidity closer to neutrality, while using overnight and term repos under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility to manage liquidity in the near term. Additional open market operations (OMO) also seem unlikely, given the cancellation of the OMO sale last month.

Government finances commentary

The RBI is likely to reiterate its caution regarding the impact of fiscal slippages on inflation in the coming month. Given that the government has already reached 96% of the budgeted fiscal deficit, any push towards large public spending would result in a breach of the 3.2% fiscal deficit budgeted for the current year. While the government has committed to stick to the fiscal deficit target, there is uncertainty regarding the October indirect tax collection number post GST implementation.

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Steel Strips Wheels total wheel rim sales at 12.92 lakh in Nov

Steel Strips WheelsSteel Strips Wheels stock rose 1% after the company said it achieved total wheel rim sales of 12.92 lakh against 11.99 lakh in November 2017, representing a growth of 8% YoY.

The volumes of truck segment helped post highest healthy revenue growth for the company.

In terms of value, the company has achieved a gross turnover of Rs172.75cr in November 2017 against 128.62cr in November 2016, thereby recording a growth of 34% and achieved a net turnover of Rs138.85cr in November 2017 against Rs115.25cr in November 2016, recording a growth of 20%.

Exports shipments saw a good rebound as fresh orders revive the growth from European markets. We expect the growth to bounce back in Q4 very sharply with start of our truck wheel exports from Chennai, the company said in the BSE filing.

The stock is currently trading at Rs1060, up by Rs51.55 or 5.11% from its previous closing of Rs1008.45 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs1019 and has touched a high and low of Rs1074 and Rs1004 respectively.

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Nifty IT Index Rises 1.5%; Infosys Gains 3%

Nifty IT Index is trading higher in the afternoon trade. Nifty IT index up by 1.5% and is the top sectorial gainer today.

Infosys’ stock gained over 3% after its board of directors has appointed Salil S Parekh as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director (CEO & MD) of the company effective January 2, 2018.

Shares of Wipro declined 1% as National Grid US filed lawsuit against company in the US court.

Benchmark Nifty50 index was 27 points up at 10,149, while the Sensex was 104 points higher at 32,937.

Among the 50 stocks in the Nifty50 index, 27 were trading in the green, while 23 were in the red.

Mindtree Ltd is currently trading at Rs549.4, up by Rs18.95 or 3.57% from its previous closing of Rs530.45 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs533 and has touched a high and low of Rs551 and Rs532.65 respectively.

Tech Mahindra Ltd is currently trading at Rs481.55, up by Rs8.75 or 1.85% from its previous closing of Rs472.8 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs474 and has touched a high and low of Rs486.75 and Rs466.15 respectively.

HCL Technologies Ltd is currently trading at Rs841.3, up by Rs11.75 or 1.42% from its previous closing of Rs829.55 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs835 and has touched a high and low of Rs843.95 and Rs825.1 respectively.

Tata Elxsi Ltd is currently trading at Rs929.75, up by Rs12.05 or 1.31% from its previous closing of Rs917.7 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs927.8 and has touched a high and low of Rs938.05 and Rs910 respectively.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd is currently trading at Rs2651, up by Rs20.45 or 0.78% from its previous closing of Rs2630.55 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs2627 and has touched a high and low of Rs2652.65 and Rs2603.7 respectively.

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Persistent Systems to Focus on Finance, Healthcare and Mfg

Persistent Systems

Below are the few key takeaways from the meet:

  • The company is keen on scaling up its products/solutions in order to target multiple accounts.
  • Financial services, healthcare and manufacturing continue to be the key verticals. The company is seeing significant traction in data, digital and IoT in Healthcare and Financial Services.
  • The company is focusing on winning IoT deals in automotive and manufacturing vertical by leveraging its IBM Partnership.
  • The IoT is an emerging market and the company has competency in managing configurations which is the biggest constraint in that space.
  • In Accelerite segment (~8.8% of FY17 revenue); the company is developing a strong product portfolio of its own. It stated that within the segment, the demand for hybrid cloud is growing at a CAGR of 22.5% p.a. thereby representing a significant opportunity.
  • The company expects margin improvement by offering packaged solutions as a whole.
  • Persistent is focusing on increasing revenue from India (5.5% of FY17 revenue) by selling IP end-to-end and bundled solutions.
Earlier, the management has guided that IBM Alliance business is likely to witness strong traction in Q3FY18 owing to seasonality, wherein IBM IP posts strong performance during October-December quarter. Also, its recent acquisition of PARX is likely to help the company expand its Europe business (especially DACH region). The acquisition (effective August 2017) will contribute 1.4% to USD revenue for FY18.
Persistent with its IBM deal and growing digitization business is the best bet in the niche IoT segment in the mid-cap space. We believe its timely shift of focus on IP and Digital will help it weather the changing dynamics in its traditional services business.
Persistent is currently trading at Rs 655.8, down by Rs 0.05 or 0.01% from its previous closing of Rs 655.8 on the BSE.

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Metal stocks gain; NMDC, Hindalco Top Gainer

Sheet tin metal rolls, SteelThe metal stocks were buzzing during Monday’s trade as the Nifty Metal Index advanced 1%. NMDC was the top gainer on the index and the stock was trading higher by over 3%.

Today, the government plans to auction up to 70 mineral blocks in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar) and expects revenue of Rs1.25lakh cr over 50 years from these blocks, as per media reports.

Shares of Hindalco Industries, NMDC, Tata Steel, and Vedanta were up 1-3%.

NMDC Ltd is currently trading at Rs133.1, up by Rs4.2 or 3.26% from its previous closing of Rs128.9 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs130.85 and has touched a high and low of Rs134 and Rs130 respectively.

Hindalco Industries Ltd is currently trading at Rs239.2, up by Rs3.5 or 1.48% from its previous closing of Rs235.7 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs236.5 and has touched a high and low of Rs240.7 and Rs234.55 respectively.

Vedanta Ltd is currently trading at Rs289.75, up by Rs2.85 or 0.99% from its previous closing of Rs286.9 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs288.35 and has touched a high and low of Rs294.3 and Rs286.4 respectively.

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Sensex, Nifty trade volatile; Realty, Pharma drag

Indices came off day’s high in afternoon trade. Nifty IT continued to outperform the broader indices and was up 1% led by Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Mindtree.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC advanced 1.5%.

Metal stocks gain on government’s plan to auction 70 mines. NMDC (+3%), Hindalco, Vedanta (+2%), Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc, JSPL (+1%).

Nifty PSU Bank Index up nearly 1%. Canara Bank (+2%), Andhra Bank, PNB, Union Bank, IDBI Bank (+1%).

At 2:50 PM, BSE Sensex up by 3 points to 32,836 and the NSE Nifty50 Index slipped by 2 points to 10,119.

The BSE Mid-cap Index and BSE Small-cap Index were trading lower at 16,683 and 17,916 respectively.

Some buying was seen in IT, Metal, Media, FMCG, Auto and PSU bank, while Bank Nifty, Realty, Pharma, Pvt Bank, and Auto showed weakness on the NSE.

Infosys, Indiabulls HF, Zee, Hindalco and HUL gained the most on Nifty50.

UPL, Bharti Infratel, Coal India, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the top losers.

India VIX up by 0.20% at 14.82 level.

Out of 2,018 stocks traded on the NSE, 657 advanced, 1,032 declined and 329 remained unchanged today.

A total of 62 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trade today, while 24 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE.

News Highlights:

Jubilant Life Sciences stock rallies 6% on green panel nod for Gujarat unit.

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BSE, NSE Plan to expand Business Outside SEBI’s purview: Report

Major stock exchanges — Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange — are mulling expansion into businesses outside the SEBI’s purview, a source-based report in the Hindu BusinessLine said.

The exchanges are seeking one-time approval for the same. The proposal has been sent to the SEBI committee, headed by former Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor R Gandhi.

“They have sought SEBI’s permission to engage in activities or businesses that are unrelated to, or not identical to, those of an SE or of clearing corporations (CCs) or their core business, through a separate legal entity,” sources told the newspaper.

The approval could pave way for data analytics eco-system, artificial intelligence (AI) and data repository services.

BSE already has a tie-up with Sentifi, Switzerland’s algorithmic data analysis firm for social media updates related to 40,000 globally listed stocks. The exchange is also mulling selling insurance policies via a real-time digital platform.

In 2016, BSE had applied to SEBI for two insurance-related arms under its subsidiary, BSE Investments. It already has presence in mutual funds via the BSE Star MF.

The aim is to provide an information technology (IT) platform for the BSE members.

In October this year, BSE also tied-up with Nasdaq-listed Ebix Inc to develop an insurance distribution network in India. the new joint venture — BSE-Ebix — will deploy a distribution platform to allow distribution outlets, stock brokers, financial platform and wealth management advisors to sell life and non-life products.

Similarly, NSE too is a promoter of Computer Age Management Services (CAMS) and NSDL e-governance.

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Commodities Buzz: Indian Crude Oil Basket Tumbles Near $54 Mark

The international crude oil price of Indian Basket as computed today by Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas was US$ 54.24 per barrel (bbl) on 9.10.2017. This was lower than the price of US$ 55.27 per bbl on previous publishing day of 6.10.2017. In rupee terms, the price of Indian Basket decreased to Rs. 3542.48 per bbl on 9.10.2017 as compared to Rs. 3605.01 per bbl on 6.10.2017. Rupee closed weaker at Rs. 65.31 per US$ on 9.10.2017 as compared to 65.23 per US$ on 6.10.2017.

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Gold Recoups Previous week’s Losses as Dollar Eases

Gold prices rose on Monday, erasing all of the previous week’s losses, as a weaker dollar and the resilience of a key chart level removed some downward pressure, while the return of Chinese buyers to the market also lent support.

Prices bounced after falling for a fourth week to a two-month low on Friday, following an upbeat reading of U.S. wage growth and unemployment that supported expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike in December, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher.

Gold’s resilience above its 200-day moving average at $1,253 an ounce also provided some technical support. Meanwhile, the dollar fell below a 10-week high, while geopolitical concerns centred on North Korea and Spain supported gold prices.

Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,283.16 an ounce by 2:33 p.m. EDT (1833 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.8 percent at $1,285.

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