नोटबंदी: बैंकों में जमा हुए 8.45 लाख करोड़ के पुराने नोट

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मुंबई। नोटबंदी के बाद बैंकों में 500 और 1,000 के पुराने नोटों में कुल 8.45 लाख करोड़ रपए जमा हुए हैं या बदले गए हैं। यह आंकड़ा 27 नवंबर तक का है। रिजर्व बैंक ने एक बयान में यह जानकारी दी। केंद्रीय बैंक ने कहा कि इस दौरान बैंकों ने काउंटर तथा एटीएम के जरिए 2.16 करोड़ रुपए वितरित किए हैं।

गत 8 नवंबर को 500 और 1,000 के नोटों को बंद करने की घोषणा की गई थी। इसके बाद रिजर्व बैंक ने इन नोटों को बैंकों में जमा कराने या उनको   बदलने की व्यवस्था की थी। यह सुविधा रिजर्व बैंक और अन्य वाणिज्यिक बैंकों के काउंटरों के अलावा क्षेत्रीय ग्रामीण बैंकों तथा शहरी सहकारी बैंकों में उपलब्ध है।

केंद्रीय बैंक ने कहा कि 10 नवंबर से 27 नवंबर तक बैंकों ने 8,44,982 करोड़ रपए के नोट जमा किए हैं या बदले हैं। इनमें से 33,948 करोड़ रपए के   पुराने नोट बदले गए हैं और 8,11,033 करोड़ रपए जमा किए हैं। इस दौरान लोगों ने बैंक काउंटरों या एटीएम के जरिए 2,16,617 करोड़ रुपए निकाले हैं।

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Gave Corrupt No Time To Prepare, Says PM, Pitches For Digital Eco

Narendra ModiPrime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated his pitch for a digital and cashless economy on Friday and said those criticising the government’s preparedness on demonetization were angry as his government gave them “no time to prepare”.

“Everyone has the right to use their money, but the world is changing today. Money is not available physically. We must move towards a cashless economy,” the PM said at a book launch function in Parliament House Annexe in the run-up to Constitution Day on Saturday.

In an apparent dig at opposition leaders who have joined forces against the move, Modi said those criticising the government’s implementation were blindsided as “we didn’t them time to prepare”.

“Those criticising the move don’t have a problem with the government’s preparedness. They have a problem that they didn’t get time to prepare,” the PM said.

Invoking BR Ambedkar on the eve of Constitution Day, the PM said both were inseparable. “Our Constitution has a very special place in our lives. It is important to be connected with the spirit of the Constitution, apart from being aware of its articles and provisions,” he said.

“January 26 is incomplete without November 26,” the PM said.

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Govt should go for a sharp fuel rate cut of Rs 5: Enam

petrol-price-cutDemonetization will be positive for medium to long-term. However, in the short term the impact can be seen on daily-wage worker who probably are now in danger of going below the poverty line, says Sridhar Sivaram, investment director at Enam Holdings.

He says the near-term looks patchy as the cash cleanup is an event which market veterans have never seen before and it is difficult to analyse. There will be demand destruction as some buying was coming from the black economy.

He said the government will gain from this currency ban and make Rs 2-3 lakh crore.

He further said the government should not worry about the fiscal deficit for this year and should focus on reviving the economy faster.

He further said the government should not worry about the fiscal deficit for this year and should focus on reviving the economy faster.

On building a portfolio, Sivaram said the concern in this market is that the earnings expectation is too high.

“Pre-demonetisation, the current fiscal year expectation was 15 percent in earnings and 18 percent on top of that for next year. We were expecting 7-8 percent growth for this year and possibly 10-12 percent for next year. The best way to build a portfolio was bottom-up. That was our startegy and we still keep that,” said Sivaram.

He remains positive on PSU banks post the currency ban.

The bitter boardroom battle between Ratan Tata and Cyrus Mistry is confusing the investors whether to invest in Tata companies or not.

Sivaram says that most investors will take a judgement call related to Tata Group.

Below is the verbatim transcript of Sridhar Sivaram’s interview to Latha Venkatesh, Anuj Singhal & Sonia Shenoy. Latha: How do you handle this demonetisation as a stock market investor? Steer clear of buying or selling at this juncture?

A: This is an event which so many of us who have been in the market for so many years haven’t seen anything like this and this year in particular we have had many of these events starting from Brexit to unexpected victory of Trump and now this. So, there is no precedent to this and it is everybody’s own guess on how you analyse this. So, it is reasonably clear that on a medium to long-term this is very positive because the black money in the system will go down if not completely get eradicated. Tax to gross domestic product (GDP) over a period will go up because we are really talking about stock not the flow because the cash will come back into the system, everybody will do the business the way they were doing. It will take some time for them to generate the black money but in general the disclosure levels will surely go up. So, these are the positives from the medium-term.

The negatives in the short-term is we don’t know what is happening because businesses have stopped and my concern is not on the immediate business stopping but the second derivative impact. Like if paints are not selling, the guy who is actually painting, he doesn’t have the daily wage. So, he is going from the brink of poverty to below poverty. So, those are the issues, it is very difficult for anybody to fathom and to analyse and take a calculated guess on how this will play out. I just gave one example. There are hundreds like this, truck drivers, or an auto rickshaw driver, it can just go on.

The only thing is that as we speak things have improved a lot. Over the last 2-3 days I have gone into the market, things have really improved; people are giving Rs 100 notes back. So, this is city. I don’t know how it is in the rural and in the small town. So, I really can’t extrapolate this. So, that is the short-term pain but surely over the medium to long-term this will have significant impact and of course there is a lot written about the gain that the government will make, how much it will be, whether Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can pass it or not time will tell but surely 2-3 trillion is what is expected the government can make and that can be utilised over a period of time.

Anuj: But in the near term there are some people calling for doomsday scenario, some calling for de-growth as well in the economy. Do you see risk of that and if that is the case do you see more pain in the near term for the market?

A: It is possible. It is very difficult to predict with the very near term because we are hearing numbers that sales have fallen by 50 percent; sales have fallen by 60 percent. The question is how fast this does — it is just two weeks now since demonetisation and we are seeing some improvement — he question is how fast this stabilises and we assume that one quarter is a write off and maybe even the next quarter is more or less a write off. The question is can we come back to even 70 percent of previous starting next year and then we move forward. There will be some demand destruction because some of the demand was coming due to the black economy. So, it will take time for it to come back into the system. So, even next year is going to be tough. So, if structurally we think about it this is positive. Yes, near term it is very patchy, really very difficult to analyse.

Sonia: From market’s point of view what impact do you think this could have on the fiscal because higher disclosure should lead to increase tax collection. But on the other hand if the economy slows down markedly then that could hamper tax growth. So, do you think it would become tough for the government to meet that FY17 fiscal deficit target?

A: My view is slightly counterintuitive. I think the government needs to give a fiscal stimulus right now because this is an unprecedented event and we know that the economy is slowing down. Fortunately for us the inflation numbers are quite benign and we are going to fall further. So, we do expect a 50 bps cut coming in December from RBI combined that with a fiscal stimulus, whichever way, you cut excise duty, petrol prices have to be drastically cut by Rs 5 or something like that to just give a booster to the economy because we are seeing a shock and you need something to neutralise it. It will have some impact on fiscal for this year but it is highly probably that some part of it is mitigated by one-off gains. So, these are calculated risks the government has to take. I am sure even they didn’t anticipate these sort of reactions but I would really hope that they act together, which is the monetary and the fiscal, acts together and not be so bothered about the fiscal deficit for the rest of this year because you will get some one-off gains next year and if you can revive this economy faster than just allowing it to revive the way it is which is slow and steady. It may be a bit too late. As I said it is a counterintuitive way of thinking that you actually increase the fiscal to get over this problem.

Latha: You are actually part of a fairly large group of people that believe that fiscal stimulus should come. What is different in what you are saying is that a lot of people were hoping for a large investment by the government if it got a large dividend or some such one-offs. But we had a Credit Suisse report which said that government appears to have lost its ability to spend. Road contracts after coming in thick and fast have started petering out. The bandwidth of the government to spend right down to the last bureaucrat has weakened according to that report. So, if it comes in the form of petrol price cuts then that is more market oriented and consumption oriented.

A: That is the easiest way of transferring wealth because the guy who uses a tractor to an auto rickshaw driver to a middle class family everybody benefits. And it flows immediately. You cut Rs 5 the entire economy benefits day one. There is nothing better than that because they have created a war chest because they have actually increased it, they have increased at least Rs 16 or 17 absolute over the last two years, so they have some cushion. It will lead to some strain on fiscal but these are times where even the rating agencies would take cognisance of that because India has had significant improvement in macro and we have not seen any change in the rating agencies stance. So, I don’t see because of this and if the fiscal goes up a bit knowing fully that you do have one off gains next year which can offset this is something which the rating agency should take cognisance, this is my guess, I don’t have any reach to them.

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Demonetization move: Dissecting the impact on the real estate sector

While the demonetization initiative by the Central government means further delays in ongoing real estate projects due to the massive cash crunch, it also paves the way for a cleaner and more transparent real estate industry in the time to come. Developers will now look for alternate funding arrangements while end-users or investors will wait for more certainty before making any move. Let’s delve deeper into the impact of this change on the real estate sector in short to long term.

Short-term: Market to undergo a slowdown  
The sudden ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes has resulted in a situation of limited or no cash in the market to be parked in real estate assets. This has subsequently translated into an abrupt fall in housing demand across all budget categories in the short term. While a share of this dwindled demand could be attributed to distractions caused by the move, many industry experts opine that this is a result of a trust deficit in the market. Money has become dearer, leading to cautious spending and minimal transactions.

The slowdown owing to this announcement has been more severe in NCR particularly Gurgaon, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and certain Tier II markets such as Surat and Vadodara. Minimal impact of demonetisation has been felt in markets such as Bangalore, Pune and Chennai, which are primarily end-user driven and rely on bank funding.

Liquidity has been severely impacted and this would result in a deflation with limited sales over the next three months. In short, the move has taken the real estate sector by a storm, and it would take time for all stakeholders in the sector – brokers, buyers, owners and developers – to assess its repercussions on their businesses and decisions.

In particular, transactions in the premium housing sector and the residential land category – overtly dependent on the cash component – would come to a standstill in the short term.

In the short term, buyers and sellers in the middle of transactions might be impacted as cash component would be involved in such deals.

There would be intermittent delays in the execution of ongoing residential and commercial projects primarily owing to the massive cash crunch and minimal trading in the economy.

Mid-term Impact: Reduced inflation, better home ownership appetite, improved rental landscape
With limited money floating in the economy, the inflation rates are expected to fall in the next 2-3 quarters. This, coupled with key policy developments such as speculative repo rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), could mean a better home ownership appetite. However, this could be restricted to the affordable housing category.

The heavily cash-dependent secondary market could bear a colossal brunt of the demonetisation move. With the gap between circle rates and market rates bridging, owners would reduce ‘ask’ prices, impacting the average housing prices across cities. Resale properties would, thus, become cheaper and this could pressurise the primary market, as well. Developers might offer new projects at discounted rates or propose incentives to magnetise buyers.

The dwindling demand for housing could benefit the rental market across metros but the change might take a year or so to manifest its impact on the rental price points. Both commercial and residential markets could see rentals going north by 10-20 percent.
In the midst of all these developments, affordable housing will remain largely unaffected due to their non-dependence on the cash component. In fact, the demand for this category might witness an uptrend due to improved purchasing power.

demonetization'

Long-term impact: Transparency, revived trust and capital inflows in the realty sector

The real estate sector is expected to get cleansed of its ailments in the due course of time owing to the elimination of black money clubbed with multiple regulatory changes such as the Goods and Services Tax Act, Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act and amendment of the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Act. Subsequently, project approvals will be quicker, resulting in a substantial reduction in the total cost of construction, thereby, the ‘per unit’ cost. Fair pricing would mean a revived demand for new projects in the market.

Demonetisation could also mean fresh sources of funding for developers to complete their projects. Some of the alternate sources may include the following:

  • Developers will be forced to clean up their balance sheets so that they can avail funding from legitimate sources, however, this may come at extremely high costs from the Non-banking financial companies (NBFC) segment.
  • Developers can avail short-term loans from their existing buyers at market price with a promise to deliver the project on time and at an interest rate as per the agreement in the sales deed.
  • Investments from private equity firms would usher positive sentiment across the market, helping developers to source funding and strengthen end-user demand.
The real estate sector could witness a major revolution with cash transactions getting eliminated and a major share of trades going online with the penetration of alternative forms of payment such as E-wallets, apps and plastic money. To sum it up, the demonization of old currency has ushered a new era for the real estate industry in India that would be transparent, corruption-free, organised and veracious.
(The author Narasimha Jayakumar is Chief Business Officer of 99acres.)

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24 नवंबर तक चलेंगे 500-1000 के पुराने नोट, PM मोदी की देर रात मीटिंग में हुए कई फैसले…

modiनई दिल्‍ली. 500 और 1000 रुपए के पुराने नोट पर सभी अब जरूरी सेवाओं के लिए 24 नवंबर तक चलेंगे। पहले यह लिमिट 14 नवंबर तक थी। यानी, अब अस्पतालों,… मेट्रो स्टेशनों, शमशान घाट, दवा की दुकानों, पेट्रोल पंपों में 24 नवंबर तक 500 और 1000 रुपये के पुराने नोट स्वीकार किए जाएंगे। नोट बैन से आम पब्लिक को हो…रही परेशानी को देखते हुए पीएम मोदी ने रविवार देर रात अपने आवास पर सीनियर मिनिस्‍टर्स और टॉप अफसरों के साथ मीटिंग में यह फैसला किया। मीटिंग में जेटली-राजनाथ समेत… कई मंत्री शामिल हुए।…

इकोनॉमिक अफेयर्स एडवाइजर शक्तिकांत दास ने कहा है कि जरूरी सेवाओं के लिए अब 24 नवंबर तक 500-1000 के नोट स्वीकार किए जाएंगे।…

– मोदी की ये मीटिंग उनके आवास 7, लोक कल्याण मार्ग पर रात 10 बजे शुरू हुई जो आधीरात तक चली।…
– मीटिंग में फाइनेंस मिनिस्टर अरुण जेटली, होम मिनिस्टर राजनाथ सिंह, I&B मिनिस्टर वेंकैया नायडू, ऊर्जा मंत्री पीयूष गोयल समेत टॉप ऑफिशियल्स भी शामिल हुए। …

रिव्‍यू मीटिंग में लिए गए फैसला…

– इकोनॉमिक अफेयर्स सेक्रेटरी शक्तिकांत दास ने बताया कि सभी अस्पतालों, पेट्रोल पंपों, रेलवे स्टेशनों और हवाई अड्डों पर 500 और 1000 के पुराने नोट चलने की समय सीमा 14 नवंबर से बढ़ाकर 24 नंवबर तक कर दी गई है।…

– दास ने बताया कि देश के सभी टोल पर 24 नवंबर तक कोई टैक्स भी नहीं लिया जाएगा। बिजली और पानी के बिल जैसे केंद्र सरकार, राज्य सरकार द्वारा लिए जाने वाले सभी बिलों का भुगतान 24 नवंबर तक 500 और 1000 के पुराने नोटों से किया जा सकता है। उन्होंने कहा कि लोगों को परेशान होने की जरूरत.नहीं है। आरबीआई के पास पर्याप्त कैश है।…

– बैंक काउंटर से पुराने नोटों से नए नोटों को बदलने की सीमा 4,000 रुपए से बढ़ाकर 4,500 रुपए  कर दी गई है।…

– बैंकों को एटीएम से रोजाना पैसे निकालने की सीमा बढ़ाकर 2,500 रुपए करने का निर्देश दिया गया है।…

– बैंक काउंटर से प्रति हफ्ते अधिकतम निकासी की सीमा 20,000 रुपए से बढ़ाकर 24,000 रुपए कर दी गई है। बैंक से प्रतिदिन 10,000 रुपए निकालने की लिमिट को हटा…

– बैंकों को सीनियर सिटीजन और दिव्‍यांगों के लिए अलग लाइन की व्यवस्था करने के लिए कहा गया है।…

3 लाख करोड़ हुए जमा …

– फाइनेंस मिनिस्‍ट्री के अनुसार, नोट बैन के पहले चार दिन (13 नवंबर को शाम 5 बजे तक) बैंकिंग सिस्‍टम में 3 लाख करोड़ रुपए 500 और 1000 रुपए के…

– करीब 50,000 करोड़ रुपए कस्‍टमर्स को एटीएम या अकाउंट से विद्ड्रॉल के रूप में जारी किए जा चुके हैं।…

– बीते चार में दिन में बैंकिंग सिस्‍टम में करीब 18 लाख करोड़ रुपए का ट्रांजैक्‍शन हुआ है।

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Here’s what Raghuram Rajan had to say about demonetisation

Raghuram RajanWhile the government’s demonetization initiative has been applauded by many for its impact on black money, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan had a different take on the subject. “It (demonetization) is often cited as a solution (to get black money out of circulation). Unfortunately, my sense is the clever find ways around it,” he had said at the 20th Lalit Doshi Memorial lecture on ‘Finance and Opportunity in India’ in August 2014.

Rajan believed it is not that easy to flush out the black money. “They (people) find ways to divide up their hoard in to many smaller pieces. You do find that people who haven’t thought of a way to convert black to white, throw it into the Hundi in some temples. I think there are ways around demonetization,” an article by The Huffington Post said quoting Rajan.

Rajan also noted that a fair amount of the black money is in the form of gold which is even harder to track.

Instead, the focus, according to Rajan, should be taxes that prove to be among the major incentives to generate and retain black money. While noting India’s tax rates are fair and drawing attention to the high tax rates in some other countries, he said he would prefer to focus more on tracking data and better tax administration to get at where money is not being declared.

“I think it is very hard in this modern economy to hide your money that easily.”

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