Exclusive Report On Crude Oil

Excusive Report On Crude OilTechnical View on Crude Oil (MCX)

Crude Oil again a primary concern for some countries like Venezuela, whose economy is operated on oil exports, as the prices dropped to its 5 months low. Technically Crude oil is consolidating in a channel line since April 2016 majorly trading in a range 2900 to 3700. It registered a free fall after breaking crucial support of 3450. It is now consolidating just below the lower trend line of the long term channel line and holding support at 3100. A bounce back is expected in prices if sustains above 3100, it may correct sharply up to 3350-3450 levels at the end of the April Contract. But the primary trend remains bearish.  A break down below 3100 may further extend bearish trend up to 2880. If it breaks 2900 with heavy volume, then 2600 should not be ruled out.


Resistance N Support


Crude Oil

Technical View on Crude (NYMEX)

On U.S. commodity exchange (NYMEX) Crude Oil turned bearish after breaking consolidation range below $52 as U.S. crude oil inventories reached record high at 533 million barrels set a bigger than expected 5 million barrel jump. Crude oil is now trading below $50 mark and settled at long-term trend line starting from lows made in April 2016. Primary trend is bearish but a bounce back up to $52-53 is form this trend line support.  A break below $47 will extend the bearish trend up to $42-41. COT (Commitments of Traders) Report also suggest that Commercial traders and hedgers are still bearish on Oil. A bounce in prices will give selling opportunity in crude oil as primary trend remains bearish.


Crude Oil 2

F a c t s & F I g u r e s

Crude oil is the highest consumed commodity in the world. Countries are dependent on its import and export. Gulf country economies are majorly dependent on crude export but in recent years U.S. shale oil (a substitute of crude oil) supply puts pressure on crude oil prices because of major U.S. Shale oil supply demand of crude decreased. Crude oil exporting countries supply was affected by U.S. Shale oil and with lower demand and higher supply crude oil prices touched the lows of 2008 crises. In recent months major exporting countries of crude oil have decided to cut the supply so they can support the falling prices of crude. Major exporting countries of crude are listed below.


  • Oil prices last week broke below $50 a barrel for the first time since December as rising U.S. shale oil supply muted the impact of reductions in output from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other nations that started on Jan. 1.
  • Several weeks of rising crude inventories had put pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude inventory levels remain near record highs. This comes at a time when U.S. producers are taking advantage of rising prices to crank up production. EIA data show in the latest week, U.S. output hit a 13-month high at 9.1 million barrels a day.Capture 111
  • China’s crude-oil production declined by 8% in the months of January and February of this year, while crude oil imports increased by 12.5%.
     OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil, and several non-OPEC countries including Russia agreed in December to reduce production for six months in an effort to bring supply and demand into balance. At the time, the producers said they could extend the deal for an extra six months.
  • Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that OPEC would extend the cuts after they expire in June if oil stockpiles were “still above the five-year average.” Because oil stocks are so far above that level, the target will probably still be out of reach.


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Gold and Oil prices plummet

Gold News

Gold prices plummeted, as persistently intensifying strength in US dollar has substantially dented the safe haven appeal of metals like gold and silver. Minutes of US FOMC policy meeting on November 1-2 aggravated the selling pressure.

In this regard, the minutes conveyed that a rate hike in December is very much on the cards. Fed members expressed that rising inflation is a growing concern as there is a possibility of consumer prices surpassing the Central Bank’s target sooner than expected. Market participants now sense that there can be a series of rate hikes in 2017, with the subsequent hike coming as early as March 2017.

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets on markets.

Oil prices were lower in the morning but turned positive after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly fell 1.3 million barrels last week. U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week after three straight weeks of builds as imports dropped and refineries hiked output.

Gasoline stocks rose 2.3 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 327,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 357,000-barrel drop.


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कमोडिटी बाजार: कच्चे तेल में गिरावट बढ़ी, क्या करें ?

crude-oilकच्चे तेल में गिरावट बढ़ गई है। घरेलू बाजार में क्रूड का दाम करीब 1 फीसदी गिर गया है। दरअसल क्रूड के ग्लोबल मार्केट में गिरावट का रुख है। इसबीच सोने की चमक भी फीकी पड़ गई है। सोने में ग्लोबल मार्केट में 5 महीने के निचले स्तर पर कारोबार हो रहा है। वहीं चांदी में भी बिकवाली हावी है। मजबूत डॉलर से बुलियन पर दबाव बढ़ा है। इधर कॉपर लगातार तीसरे दिन टूटा है। निकेल और जिंक समेत दूसरे मेटल में भी बिकवाली हावी है। डॉलर में मजबूती से लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज पर दबाव बना है।

एमसीएक्स पर सोना 0.2 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 29320 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है। जबकि चांदी 0.3 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 41115 रुपये के करीब नजर आ रही है। वहीं कच्चा तेल 1 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 3090 रुपये के आसपास दिख रहा है। जबकि नैचुरल गैस 0.3 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 190 रुपये के बहुत करीब कारोबार कर रहा है।

बेस मेटल्स की बात करें तो एल्युमीनियम 0.7 फीसदी टूटकर 115 रुपये के नीचे चला गया है। जबकि कॉपर 0.8 फीसदी लुढ़क कर 370 रुपये के नीचे कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं लेड 1.3 फीसदी टूट गया है और 145 रुपये के नीचे नजर आ रहा है। जबकि निकेल 0.8 फीसदी गिरकर 760 रुपये के करीब आ गया है।

इस बीच नोटबंदी पर केंद्र सरकार ने किसानों और कारोबारियों को बड़ी राहत दी है। किसान अब क्रेडिट कार्ड के जरिए बैंकों से हफ्ते में 25000 रुपये तक निकाल सकेंगे। जबकि एपीएमसी से जुडे़ कारोबारियों को हफ्ते में 50000 रुपये तक निकालने की सीमा दी गई है।


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