Nifty eyes 12000 mark in 2018

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  1. Bogle’s formula:

Future Market Returns = Dividend Yield (last 5 years) + Earnings Growth CAGR (last 5 years) +/- Change in P/E Ratio (last 5 years).

  1. The dividend yield has usually been in the range of 0.93-1.66%. A conservative estimate takes the yield as 1.34%.
  2. The Nifty’s EPS has grown from Rs316 in December 2012, to Rs391 now. So, five year CAGR is 4%.
  3. Currently, the Nifty PE is at 26.75 and it was at around PE 18.50 in December 2012. So, it is up by about PE 8.25 in the last 5years.

Using the formula, the expectations for future index returns would be (1.34 + 4 + 8.25), which is about 13.59%. As on December 20, 2017, Nifty is around at 10,450, which means as per future market return formula, Nifty could be 11,800-11,900 levels by December 2018.

  1. Mean+1 Formula:

The returns from the index over short periods of time can be said to be Normally Distribution (ND) and ND is defined by mean and standard deviation with a bell-shaped curve.

The Formula is:

Spot price + (IV range * Reversal level)

10,450 + (1357*0.786) = 11,517

So, as per Mean+1 formula, Nifty could be 11,500-11,600 levels by December 2018.

Remarks:

For Nifty to achieve the target of 11,500-12,000, the best derivative strategy is ‘Synthetic Call’ with LEAP option. Traders and investors are advised to do these complex options strategy after knowing their risk management through a derivative expert only. Hedging any open positions against adverse market movements is the key aspect of risk management in derivatives.

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Dilip Buildcon bags two EPC projects worth Rs518cr, up 4.3%

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DBL has received an order of Rs157cr, which involves six-laning of Davanagere-Haveri Section of NH-48 (Old NH-4) in Karnataka for a length of 6.85 km for package 18. Another project of Rs 361 cr is for the same highway (package 2). Both the contracts are expected to be completed in 24 months.

DBL is engaged in engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) of infrastructure facilities viz; roads, bridges, buildings, water bodies and mining. The company’s order book consists of road, highways & bridges (~82% of order book), mining (~15%) and rest from others. Moreover, it holds healthy order book of ~Rs14200cr (2.7x book-to-bill FY17 sales), which provides revenue visibility for next few years.

We are positive on the company, as we expect revenue CAGR of 17.7% over FY17-19E. Under BOT, it plans to monetize few assets to de-leverage balance sheet and meet equity requirements. Thereby, we expect PAT to grow at 19.4% CAGR over FY17-19E

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Top stocks in Focus Today, Update from CapitalHeight

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HDFC has approved the sale of 100% of its equity share capital of HDFC Developers and HDFC Realty to Quikr India for a total consideration of Rs101.99cr and Rs254.98cr respectively.

VIP Clothing to allot 1.65cr shares at Rs26 each via rights issue.

Canara Bank plans to sell 4% stake in Can Fin Homes. The bank will hold 26% stake after the sale.

Reliance Power has approached the Delhi HC seeking early allocation of coal to its power plant in Maharashtra.

NHPC approved amending the company’s MoA to enable it to apply to power regulator CERC for trading license. The decision is in-line with the Power Ministry’s plan to make NHPC an aggregator for meeting the demand of peaking power.

Havells India announced its foray in the water purifiers segment aiming at Rs100cr revenue in the first year of operations.

Coal India subsidiaries have finally issued electronic letters of intent for supplies of 27 million tonnes of coal annually for 25 years to 10 companies that won them through an e-auction on discounts offered over their existing tariffs.

Somany Ceramics has issued Commercial Paper of Rs50cr value dated 20 December, 2017 having maturity on March 15, 2018. The aforesaid issuance of commercial papers is to reduce high interest bearing cash credit limits and in turn reducing cost of borrowing.

SBI board meeting on Dec 27, to seek approval to raise AT1 capital from domestic/international markets.

Aurobindo Pharma received USFDA approval for Amlodipine Besylate and Valsartan Tablets.

Adani Power, Tata Power, Suzlon Energy, Inox Wind stock will be in focus today, as wind power tariff hit new low of Rs2.43/unit.

Aarti Industries to buy back 8.2 lakh shares or 1% at Rs1,200 each.

Indian Overseas Bank says RBI rejects notes to account on asset divergence.

RInfra, Adani Transmission in pact for Mumbai Power operations sale.

Indian Hume gets Rs257.26cr order from Karnataka.

Steel Strips Wheels gets order worth $2.15 mn from Egypt.

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CH Stock Market Opening Bell 22-December-2017

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CH OPENING BELL:

NIFTY FUTURE DOWN 3 @ 10459

BANKNIFTY FUTURE DOWN 1 @ 25620

SENSEX UP 12 @ 33768

INR 64.06

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International Market Update by Money CapitalHeight

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CH: INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

GOLD $ 1269.10

SILVER $ 16.19

COPPER $ 3.19

CRUDE $ 58.19

INR 64.06

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World Market Update by Money CapitalHeight

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CH: WORLD MARKET UPDATE

HANG SENG 80

NIKKEI -5

SHANGHAI 2

DOWJONES 55.64

NASDAQ 4.4

SGX NIFTY 8

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CH Bank Nifty Market Trend for 22-December- 2017

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CH: BANK NIFTY TREND -CONSOLIDATE

BANK NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

SUPP 1: 25450

SUPP 2: 25130

RES 1:25880

RES 2: 26250

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CH Nifty Market Trend for 22-December- 2017

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NIFTY TREND-BULLISH

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS

SUPP 1: 10385

SUPP 2: 10310

RES 1: 10510

RES 2: 10590

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